•  
  •  
 

Abstract

Cryptocurrency airdrop scams have emerged as a rapidly growing form of cyber-enabled financial crime, yet remain underexplored in empirical research. This study examines how transaction-level mechanisms and offender strategies influence variation in monetary loss in airdrop scam incidents. Grounded in Cyber-Routine Activities Theory (Cyber-RAT), the study conceptualizes financial harm as occurring within decentralized environments where users’ online behaviors, particularly transaction authorization, intersect with limited digital capable guardianship. Data were drawn from 112 validated airdrop scam cases reported on Chainabuse.com between January and December 2025. Blockchain forensic analysis using Breadcrumbs was conducted to reconstruct transaction pathways, identify exchange interactions, and detect laundering-related patterns. Given the highly right-skewed distribution of monetary loss, a Gamma generalized linear model with a log link was employed to estimate proportional effects of key predictors. The results indicate that voluntary authorization is significantly associated with higher monetary loss, highlighting transaction approval as a critical tran sition point in the scam process. Platform-level interactions further shape outcomes, with decentralized exchange activity, particularly involving Raydium, associated with greater losses. Incoming transaction variables were not significant, whereas outgoing exchange behavior demonstrated differential effects, reflecting variation in offender routing strategies. Risk indicators showed mixed relation ships, suggesting that raw risk counts and weighted cumulative risk scores may capture different dimensions of blockchain risk expo sure. These findings suggest that financial harm in airdrop scams is primarily determined by post-authorization transaction dynamics rather than initial exposure. The study contributes to the literature by integrating blockchain forensic evidence with quantitative modeling and offers implications for strengthening transaction-level safeguards in decentralized financial systems.

Download

Share

COinS