The aim of this study was to use data provided by the Department of Public Health in the state of Massachusetts on its online dashboard to produce a time series model to accurately forecast the number of new confirmed deaths that have resulted from the spread of CoViD-19. Multiple different time series models were created, which can be classified as either an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model or a Regression Model with ARIMA Errors. Two ARIMA models were created to provide a baseline forecasting performance for comparison with the Regression Model with ARIMA Errors, which used the number of CoViD-19 patients in hospitals as an exogenous variable to help make forecasts. These models were successfully constructed, passed all diagnostic tests and, after comparing the models’ one week forecasts with a variety of forecast error measures, the Regression Model with ARIMA Errors was found to be a superior method to forecast new confirmed deaths of CoViD-19 in Massachusetts.
Dr. Wanchunzi Yu, Thesis Advisor
Dr. Kevin Rion, Committee Member
Dr. Laura K. Gross, Committee Member
Copyright and Permissions
Original document was submitted as an Honors Program requirement. Copyright is held by the author.
Disher, Andrew. (2021). Time Series Forecasting of CoViD-19 Deaths in Massachusetts. In BSU Honors Program Theses and Projects. Item 467. Available at: https://vc.bridgew.edu/honors_proj/467
Copyright © 2021 Andrew Disher